Monday, September 24, 2012

Facebook in free fall? Not yet, but how far?

The Buzz - Investment and Stock Market News
Facebook plunges 9% on $15 price call
September 24, 2012 @ 1:03 PM › Maureen Farrell
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Facebook’s shares are falling again after climbing 30% over several weeks.

Since its botched initial public offering in May, investors have heatedly discussed the following question about Facebook (FB): How low can it go?

After surging last week to a recent high of above $23 a share from its all-time low of $17.55, it looked like the Facebook fans finally had reason to celebrate. But Facebook’s stock plummeted more than 9% Monday after an article appeared in Barron’s over the weekend which declared that $15 is the right price for Facebook. The debate between Facebook bulls and bears continued on StockTwits.

RahulTongia: Facebook Is Worth $15 http://t.co/NKBLhQ49 via @barronsonline - $FB interesting take and also agree that FB doesn’t have a clear strategy

MiamiHeat:$FB is there anything new in article? No, all old news, pricedin, nothing changed, buy on dips.

It’s true that there’s not much new in the article. The author notes Facebook’s well-chronicled troubles, particularly its challenge making money from the shift to mobile web browsing.

Yet it still may be shocking to the broader investing public to see just how much more expensive Facebook is than Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL). At $23, Facebook is trading at 47 times its projected 2012 profit. Both Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) only trade for 16 times 2012 earnings.

Related: What the Zuck? Facebook up 30% from lows

Still not all traders agree, and some members of the StockTwits world clearly think that a price below $21 is s a good time to buy.

DeidreZune: My view is the selloff in $FB is an opportunity at this point. Many things beginning to go right.

AheadoftheNews: $FB just remember that it is one on the most shorted stocks out there, and why 30/40% rallies in 10 days will happen again.

lionking: $FB This drop is healthy. Weak hands taken out. Next leg up will be fast and way higher. Doesn’t look like today tho.

So will Facebook fall to $15? I’m not sure. But it seems like the days of predicting outlandishly high price targets for Facebook are ancient history. Now, the eye-popping predictions....

Like your work? Hate your job? Here's how to get what you want.

Build a website that Gets Visitors and Makes Money - Without Being a Technical Genius
How To Turn Your Current Job Into an Online Business
If you’re stuck doing a job you don’t like but are having trouble coming up with a business idea for a website, the answer is probably more obvious than you think. In fact, it’s probably been right under your nose for years.

Let me ask you a question. Which is it you don’t like? Your job or your work?

When most people say they want to start working for themselves, it’s the job they want to ditch and not the work.

That’s because the job means:

* Having a boss
* Having to be at work at set times
* Having to deal with office politics and all that crap

But the work – the thing you actually do – is usually something you like. So why not create a business around that?

You may not have realized it before, but if you’ve been doing your job for any length of time you’ve picked up all kinds of skills and inside knowledge that could be turned into a website, blog or information product like an ebook or course.

It’ll be all of the work you love, with none of the job-related stuff – like a boss – you don’t.

There are two basic ways you can cash in on your knowledge.

1. Help people who want to acquire the skill you have.
Most jobs have an exam that needs passing or a skill that needs learning somewhere along the line. You help people get to that point.

2. Create a product or service to make life easier for people doing the job.
Think about the kind of boring, repetitive tasks that need to be done but nobody actually likes doing (“pain points”, in marketing speak). Or the kind of skills needed for the job that are the most difficult to master.

Why not create a website, ebook or online course that shows people how to learn that skill or makes the boring task easier?

It’s not as difficult as it seems – you’re really just explaining what you know.

Think about the money
Once you’ve thought about the type of information or service you’re going to supply, the next step is to consider how you’ll make money from your project.

Tip: Don’t gloss over this part or think that you’ll launch a blog and then worry about finding a way to generate an income later. Financial success will come quicker if you make monetization a key part of your plan right from the start.

The 4 main ways to make money online
1. Advertising
Probably the most common revenue method. Typically, you build a website or write a blog on your chosen subject and use an ad agency like Google AdSense to sell ad placements on your site. In the case of AdSense, you’ll get paid every time a visitor clicks an ad on your site.

Pros: Easy to set up.

Cons: Profitable for many site niches but not all.

2. Affiliate links
With affiliate marketing, you recommend products related to your niche and pick up a sales commission when someone follows your link and buys the product.

Pros: With the right products, you can usually make more money as an affiliate marketer than with advertising.

Cons: There’s a skill to writing about products without sounding like a sales bore and it takes a while for affiliate sales to take off.

3. Courses, ebooks and membership sites
With these methods you’re doing similar things – collecting everything you know about a subject and putting it in a convenient package for users to buy.

Pros: You get to keep the most amount of money.

Cons: This method is the most amount of work because you have to create the product before you can sell it.

4. Provide a service or work as a consultant
Many people moving straight from a regular job will find this the easiest because it’s the most similar to a normal job – except it’s freelance and has all the freedom that comes with that.

The trick is to create incredibly useful content on your chosen subject that positions you as an expert in your field. Do that, and you’ll find clients will seek you out.

Pros: Easy and quick to get started.

Cons: You’re hiring out your time, so you can’t earn while you sleep – but you can certainly generate leads while you sleep.

How do I choose which will work best?
The truth is, many site owners use more than one method on their site, often experimenting until it’s clear one method makes more sense than the others.

Whichever you choose, you’re going to need a website.

Launching a website
If you’ve never set one up before it might sound like a big deal, but there are only three steps, with an optional fourth.

1. Buy a domain name and web hosting and set up WordPress to publish your site. The absolute easiest way to do all three in one go is to use a service like HostGator where you can buy a domain name and hosting and have WordPress automatically installed by them. It’s basically a ten minute process and costs a few dollars a month.

2. Get a classy WordPress theme. No one will take you seriously if you don’t have a professional web design. Inexpensive places you can pick up a professional WordPress theme include Studio Press and Elegant Themes.

3. Create amazing free content. This will be your honeypot, drawing the eager bees to your site for more as they find your site via search engines and social networks.

If you don’t fancy yourself as a blogger, you can make videos, slides, podcasts or any other type of content that fits your personal style and the content you’re creating.

4. Put a mailing list in place (optional but highly recommended). A mailing list is one of the best ways to build a database of potential customers.

Don’t make the mistake of waiting until your site is getting hundreds of visits a day to start building a mailing list.

Even if you’ve just launched and your traffic is low, start building a list straight away. The extra visits you’ll generate will help you get to hundreds of visits a day much quicker.



Can a former RIM CEO make a difference? Mike Lazaridis thinks so....

How RIM's Mike Lazaridis plans to turn Waterloo into the ‘Quantum Valley’
By Andrew Webster 15 Minutes Ago



"What we have here is the Bell Labs of the 21st century," proclaimed Mike Lazaridis, co-founder and vice-chairman of Research In Motion, at the ribbon-cutting ceremony for the Mike & Ophelia Lazaridis Quantum-Nano Centre (QNC) last week. Nestled in the middle of the University of Waterloo's campus, the new facility is designed to bring researchers from quantum computing and nanotechnology together under one roof. "We're going to have an insight that we believe will be unique," Lazaridis says of bringing the two disciplines together. And just as Bell Labs fostered a boom of innovation leading to the creation of Silicon Valley in California, Lazaridis believes that the QNC will have a similar impact on the troubled Waterloo region.

"It doesn't exist anywhere else in the world."

While separate fields of study, both disciplines are concerned with matter on an incredibly small scale. Nanotechnology deals with the manipulation of matter on an atomic and molecular level, while quantum computing hopes to exploit the laws of physics to — among many other things — shrink transistors to the size of individual atoms. As we look to create smaller and smaller devices, both fields have become important avenues of scientific research. "There are many institutes of nanotechnology around the world, and similarly institutes for quantum computing," says university president Feridun Hamdullahpur. "They exist in other parts of the world. But to put the two of them together — this is the first of its kind. It doesn't exist anywhere else in the world."

The 285,000 square foot building will be shared by the Institute of Quantum Computing and the Waterloo Institute for Nanotechnology, each of which will occupy separate halves of the facility. The exterior features a distinctive honeycomb-like steel structure surrounding some of the upper-most windows, while the inside includes a hypnotic set of suspended stairs. White boards cover many of the walls in case of emergency bouts of inspiration and areas like meeting rooms and offices are laid out in such a way as to encourage people from both sides to bump into one another. Meanwhile, state-of-the-art vibration dampening prevents sensitive areas like the cleanroom and fabrication facility from moving more than a fraction of the width of a human hair.



One of the more striking areas of the QNC is a six-story-tall atrium that serves as the connective tissue between the two disciplines. This open area — with windows lining seemingly every surface, bathing it in a constant stream of natural light — is what the university describes as an "informal gathering place." Anyone is free to wander in and it doubles as a handy shortcut for cutting across campus. It was here that Lazaridis addressed the crowd on opening day, explaining that the goal of the QNC is "to quote one of our most famous Canadians: 'to boldly go where no man has gone before.'"

And the people behind the $160 million building — which Hamdullahpur calls "the most expensive building in this university and in this country" among scientific facilities — are nothing if not ambitious. While Bell Labs gave birth to prominent innovations like the transistor and the laser, Hamdullahpur believes that the fruits of the QNC could lead to everything from "lighter and safer cars" and "batteries that will store a lot more energy" to "computers that will do things that we can't even imagine." Lazaridis, meanwhile, describes the potential applications as "mind-boggling," citing future developments like "drugs that are targeted at individual cells" and both self-healing and invisible metals.

Self-healing and invisible metals could be in the QNC's future

This level of innovation could help reinvigorate a region whose destiny has largely been tied to that of the much-troubled RIM — a company ironically co-founded and run until very recently by the man bankrolling this new facility. As the BlackBerry maker has struggled to keep up with Apple and Google in the smartphone race, reports of layoffs have been all too common. It's good news for those who live in the Waterloo area, then, that the most tangible benefit of the QNC's future success will be the creation of jobs, according to Lazaridis. "It's developments leading to products," he explained. "It's products leading to companies. And it's companies leading to jobs." And those companies, he believes, will help turn the region into a place he calls the "Quantum Valley."

Of course, reaching such lofty goals requires special people, and Hamdullahpur says that the school has already seen an increase in both the quantity and quality of student applications. Unsurprisingly, expectations are high. "We believe that this place has that capacity, that potential to generate the next Nobel Prize winner," he says. And while we should take these statements with a grain of salt, since both Hamdullahpur and Lazaridis have much at stake — one is the president of the university while the other has donated more than $100 million to the QNC project — they're not the only ones that see the building's potential.

"It's clear to me that this place is special," Stephen Hawking said during the opening ceremony. "This institution will advance our understanding of matter and movement, illuminating deep mysteries with the light of scientific discovery."

Maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel for Waterloo after all.

Some other rules to use as guideposts.

Things we once considered opposing forces--doing right by people and delivering results, collaborating and keeping focus, having a social purpose and making money--are really not in opposition. They never have been. But we need a more sophisticated approach to understand business models where making a profit doesn't mean losing purpose, community, and connection. Finding the right balance among them is key. We will find that balance as we shape new constructs for business models, strategies, and leadership. What we can create will be rich in many senses of the word.

Here are the social-era rules that allow both people and institutions to thrive:

1. Connections create value.
The social era will reward those organizations that realize they don't create value all by themselves. If the industrial era was about building things, the social era is about connecting things, people, and ideas. Networks of connected people with shared interests and goals create ways that can produce returns for any company that serves their needs.

2. Power in community.
Power used to come largely through and from big institutions. Today power can and does come from connected individuals in community. Power can come from the way you work with others, such as one party offering a platform to the multitude of creators. When community invests in an idea, it also co-owns its success. Instead of trying to achieve scale by all by yourself, we have a new way to have scale: scale can be in, with, and through community.

3. Collaboration > control.
Organizations that "let go at the top"--forsaking proprietary claims and avoiding hierarchy--are agile, flexible, and poised to leap from opportunity to opportunity, sacrificing short-term payoffs for long-term prosperity. No longer can management espouse the notion that good ideas can come from everywhere, while actually pursuing a practice in which direction is owned by a few. Instead of centralized decisions, there is distributed input, decision making, and distributed ownership.

4. Celebrate onlyness.
The foundational element starts with celebrating each human and, more specifically, something I've termed onlyness. Onlyness is that thing that only one particular person can bring to a situation. It includes the skills, passions, and purpose of each human. Each of us is standing in a spot that no one else occupies. That unique point of view is born of our accumulated experience, perspective, and vision. Without this tenet of celebrating onlyness, we allow ourselves to be simply cogs in a machine--dispensable and undervalued.

5. Allow all talent.
"Doing work" no longer requires a badge and a title within a centralized organization. Anyone--without preapproval or vetting or criteria--will create and contribute. And this fundamental shift changes how any organization creates value, and how many individuals gather together. This talent inclusion--across ages, genders, cultures, sexual orientation--is essential for solving new problems as well as for finding new solutions to old problems. Be the one to enable that connected individual in your enterprise, through systems and leadership, and you win.

6. Consumers become co-creators.
More and more companies embrace consumers as "co-creation" partners in their innovation efforts, instead of as buyers at the end of a value chain. Consumers, traditionally considered as value exchangers or extractors, are now seen as a source of value creation and competitive advantage. This collaboration shares power between the participants as we start to recognize value creation as an act of exchange, not simply a one-way transaction. As an exchange, all parties need to do it sustainably as each must have equilibrium to stay viable.

7. Mistakes can build trust.
Reach and connection in the social era start to be understood as a relationship similar to falling in love, following an arc of romance, struggle, commitment, and co-creation. These are not easily controlled by one party over the other but are a process of coming together. And the relationship gains strength from trying new things and the resulting failures, for it is in the process of making mistakes--and the ensuing forgiveness--that resilience develops.

8. Learn. Unlearn. (Repeat.)
Adaptability is central to how organizations and people thrive in the social era. In psychological language, the key to adaptability and personal growth is resilience. In biology, the equivalent term for adaptive skills is plasticity. In the social era, the term to use is flexibility. Instead of viewing strategy as a set end point, it becomes a horizon to aim for. Instead of asking employees to each simply man their own oar, we must encourage their capacity to navigate as conditions shift. Instead of perfection and getting it right the first time, innovation can be continuous.

9. Bank on openness.
Protecting intellectual property allows a company to keep its edge, to erect barriers to entry from competitors, to establish entirely new markets. At least, it used to. Then along came the social era, with its networks through which open, connected ideas became powerful, even catalytic. It's the difference between holding our ideas in a tight, closed fist or holding out our hand, open to what happens next.
10. Social purpose unleashes ownership.


The social object that unites people isn't a company or a product; the social object that most unites people is a shared value or purpose. Money motivates neither the best people nor the best in people. Purpose does. When people know the purpose of an organization, they don't need to check in or get permission to take the next step; they can just do it. Nonprofits have leveraged the power of people and purpose for years. But business hasn't been able to see the upside of purpose. With social purpose, alignment happens without coordination costs.

11. (There are no answers.)
Don't assume any set of rules is fully baked. Accept that your job is to stay alert to what happens next to figure out what assumptions need to be tuned. Listen, learn, adapt.

Let's dive in.

Reprinted by permission of Harvard Business Review Press. Excerpted from 11 Rules for Creating Value in the Social Era by Nilofer Merchant. Copyright 2012 Nilofer Merchant. All rights reserved.

Nilofer Merchant is a corporate director at a NASDAQ-traded firm and a lecturer at Stanford, and formerly the founder and CEO of Rubicon. Among other Fortune 500 firms, she’s worked at Apple and Autodesk. She is the author of The New How and 11 Rules for Creating Value in the Social Era. Follow her on Twitter @nilofer.

To further aid you in social era navigation, Fast Company has compiled for you--and from you--the Rules of Social Media.

[Image: Flickr user Ajari]

A good rule to have? Effective negotiation.

RICHARD'S BLOG

Rules for being a good negotiator
By Richard Branson - Sep 24, 2012

Roger Fisher, a great conflict negotiator and peacemaker, died last month aged 90. His rules for being a good negotiator were pointed out in the Economist: "'In any negotiation, he wrote - even with the terrorists - it was vital to separate the people from the problem; to focus on the underlying interests of both sides, rather than stake out unwavering positions; and to explore all possible options before making a decision.

"The parties should try to build a rapport, check each other out, even just by shaking hands or eating together. Each should "listening actively", as he always did, to what the other was saying. They should recognise the emotions on either side, from a longing for security to a craving for status. And they should try to get inside each other's heads."

Image by Aidan Jones on Flickr

Toyota goes ga ga for hybrids

FEATURED | REVIEWS | COLUMNS | VIDEOS


Greener Toyota: 21 hybrids by 2015

Posted by Chris Davies on September 24, 2012.

Toyota will launch 21 new hybrids before the end of 2015 and an all-electric compact car, the Toyota eQ, in Japan and the US later this year, as part of a significant investment in eco-friendly transportation. The roll-out will start with a new 2.5-liter gas engine which, Toyota claims, achieves a world-record setting thermal efficiency of 38.5-percent, and be followed by a smaller capacity, turbocharged version, a Prius that can power your fridge in an emergency, and then a fuel-cell system in 2015.




“Thermal efficiency” is how much of the energy produced by fuel combustion actually gets converted to mechanical work, and is something traditional gasoline engines are particularly bad at. Toyota says its new 2.5-liter engine should appear in hybrids in 2013, followed by a 2.0-liter turbocharged version for even better efficiency in 2014.

Meanwhile, the existing Prius PHV plug-in hybrid which launched at the start of this year, will soon get an accessory that will allow the car to provide power to external devices in an emergency. The system will be positioned as a way to use the Prius PHV as a standby battery during power-cuts, though it’s unclear what limits there might be on what can be plugged in.



Toyota will also begin wireless battery charging trials in Toyota City come 2013, using wireless coils embedded in the road and in the chassis of the car, to see whether they’re efficient enough.

As for the Toyota eQ, the all-electric vehicle is based on Toyota’s gas-powered iQ city car, with seating for four and a range of up to 100km (62 miles) on a single charge of its new 12 kWh Li-Ion battery. The updated power pack delivers the best electric power consumption rate in the world, Toyota claims, keeping bulk low but still delivering usable range.

It also charges swiftly, the company says, with a complete rejuicing in around three hours from a 200V AC outlet. That extends to 8hrs if you’re stuck with a 100V AC connection, however, though a quick DC charge up to 80-percent can be achieved in just 15 minutes.

Toyota doesn’t talk speed or acceleration for the eQ, which doesn’t exactly bode well for urban racers, but the car isn’t really intended for consumer use. When it hits Japan in December it will be priced at 3,600,000 yen (the equivalent of $46,000 in the US, where it will launch as the “iQ EV”) and be targeted at fleet customers rather than individuals.



Finally, Toyota says it is on-track to launch its own fuel-cell vehicle around 2015, powering the FCV (“Fuel Cell Vehicle”) initially, and then showing up in a bus on track for a 2016 debut. The new fuel-cell has the world’s highest power output density, Toyota claims, and can deliver 3 kW/L which is double what the company’s current prototype can deliver.

That’s despite being half the size and half the weight of the existing prototype. It’s in part down to a new boost converter, which increases voltage and thus allows for fewer fuel-cells and a smaller motor: cost and bulk goes down, while performance goes up.

Google takes on all? Are they going to affect everything tech?

Google's November Assault on Microsoft and Apple

By Anton Wahlman, Contributor - 09/21/12 - 7:30 AM EDT

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- It is easy to be blinded by the recent high-profile gadget launches of Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL).

Microsoft has shown different versions of Windows 8 for smartphones, tablets and PCs, which it will begin shipping around Oct. 26. Apple delivered the iPhone 5 along with new software for all of its hardware form factors.

Lurking behind the scenes, however, is Google (GOOG), which I believe will unveil a bevy of products to compete very strongly against Microsoft and Apple. I believe these products are likely to be announced as early as October, and would be available in U.S. retail within approximately 30 days thereafter -- basically, by Thanksgiving.
See if Cramer and the Real Money Pros are trading (DELL)

These products based on Google software will fall into three categories: PCs (laptops and desktops), tablets and smartphones. Let me describe them in turn:

1. PCs

Several PC brands that may be guarding themselves against a consumer and/or enterprise backlash against Windows 8 are likely to start producing Google PCs imminently. Samsung and Acer are already in production, but one can envision others joining this bandwagon.
I view Lenovo, Asus and Dell (Dell) to be the most likely ones, but others are also possibilities, including Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Sony (SNE) and Toshiba, just to mention a few.
Google offers the simplest possible PC software, especially compared to Microsoft and Apple. With a Google PC, I cannot see a scenario where you would ever be in need of tech support. Basically, it boots up much faster than an Apple iPad and it "just works."

Google laptop and desktop prices are and will be competitive with Windows, which means they are much cheaper than Apple. However, you also have to consider that with a Google PC you don't have to buy any additional software or service/support plans. Your lifetime total cost of ownership, or TCO, will be a lot lower with a Google PC.

So far, Google has not marketed its PCs very well. They only recently started appearing at Best Buy (BBY) and most consumers don't even know that a Google PC exists, let alone why they would be better than Microsoft/Windows and Apple/Mac.
Starting this November, this is likely to change. Market share shifts typically take several years to become material, but I think it will start to become measurable in the months following these imminent launches.

2. Tablets

Android tablets are a dime a dozen, but very few of them run the most recent and by far the best version of the Android operating system, the 4.1.1 version called "Jelly Bean." Starting this November, this will change -- dramatically. The current main 4.1.1 Google tablet offering made by Asus has a small 7-inch screen and no cellular/LTE connectivity.

By November of this year, we should see eight-, nine-, 10- and 11-inch Android tablets running Android 4.1.1 (or higher) and offering cellular/LTE connectivity from a long list of hardware makers. Most likely, they will be offered from most of the following: Samsung, HTC, Sony, Asus, Acer, Lenovo, Huawei and Motorola, which is of course now a division of Google's. Perhaps even others.

Google's value proposition will be that these Android tablets will be offering a more PC-like flexible operating system experience than Apple, on hardware that will be equal to -- or in some cases better than -- Apple, but at prices that almost approach the value offered by Amazon's Kindle tablets. The sheer diversity of form factors offered by these Android tablets will dwarf the offerings from Apple, Microsoft and Apple.

3. Smartphones

The fragmentation among the Android smartphone experiences has become a running joke in the industry, and even society at large. The interface looks different if you're buying a Samsung, HTC, Sony, LG and so forth.

Even worse, the software support for any Android model that hits the market can best be described in one word: orphan. Upgrades are rarely seen, if ever, and if they do show up, they tend to be six to 12 months too late, which is an eternity in the computing world.
In other words, Android fragmentation has become a total catastrophe for Google's ability to compete with Apple and Microsoft in the long term, despite that measured strictly in terms of units shipped -- 500 million or so -- Google is already in the lead. In order for this lead not to collapse in 2013, Google has to change course and right these wrongs.

Come this November, I think we will see the first evidence that Google is fixing the Android problem. The story here is in many ways similar to Google's tablet story.

Whereas in the past most of Google's smartphones were launched running one- to two-year old versions of the Android operating system, this November we should see a more uniform launch of Android 4.1.1 (or newer) smartphones from a long list of hardware makers: Samsung, HTC, Sony, LG, Huawei and Motorola (owned by Google itself), just to mention the more prominent ones.
By Google inducing its hardware makers to launch on the latest version of the Android OS, it will come a lot closer than before to matching the uniformity of the software experience offered by smartphones from Apple and Microsoft.

But that may not be the only benefit and trick of what Google has in mind for its future smartphones:
Whether this November or some time in 2013, Google may dramatically expand its "direct sales" model of both devices and service plans. Consumers can save a lot of money by purchasing a Google Nexus smartphone from Google already today for $349 and using it with an all-you-can-eat SIM card for $30, $45 or $60 per month depending on carrier and features. This can often save a consumer $1,080 over two years compared to a contract-subsidized plan, making for a huge net savings still.

The problem for Google is that today it offers only one phone for these attractive service plans. It's a good phone alright -- the Samsung Galaxy Nexus (GSM global unlocked version) -- but it would be much more attractive to have models in all sorts of sizes and shapes from HTC, Motorola, LG, Sony and others to do the same. This may be what will happen this November.
To summarize, I believe it is likely that Google will launch a broadside worthy of a comprehensive computing portfolio -- PCs, tablets and smartphones -- this October/November that will compete very strongly against the recently upgraded offerings from Microsoft and Apple.

If Google does what I have outlined here in my suspicions and suggestions, it will likely be taking market share on all fronts going into 2013.